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February 12, 2015

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Interesting. So what's the argument you do want to pursue, David? Or are you just looking for comments on the question of whether reliability is appropriately cashed out in counterfactual terms?

Interesting!

First off, you might have noticed this post vanished and then reappeared. I hadn't realized that people were having trouble with comments. At the request of the editors, I postponed briefly to make room for discussion on Ralph's original post (sorry Ralph!). If people are still having trouble commenting, I'm happy to postpone again. If not, maybe this will encourage discussion on both posts!

To answer your question, Hille, I think I want to argue something like this:

1. If X is necessary-if-true, then if we believe X and X is true, we are guaranteed to be sensitive to X.

2. If our X-belief-forming mechanisms are stable across nearby possible worlds, then if we believe X and X is true, our belief in X is safe.

3. The modal security of our normative beliefs is derived from the assumption that our normative beliefs are true in combination with:
   (a) 1 above;
   (b) the metaphysical necessity of the basic normative truths;
   (c) 2 above;
   (d) the availability of stable genealogies for our normative beliefs (e.g., evolutionary stories).

4. None of (nor any combination of) (a)-(d) is relevant to the question of whether or how our normative beliefs track the normative truth at the actual world.

5. Only considerations relevant to the question of whether or how our normative beliefs track the normative truth at the actual world can establish the reliability of those truths.

6. Therefore, modal security established as above cannot be sufficient to establish the reliability of our normative beliefs.


Before I stop and let people school me, let me just contrast this with the perception case Clarke-Doane appeals to by analogy:

Consider the perceptual case. What we can arguably offer in this case

is an evolutionary explanation of how we came to have sensitive mechanisms for perceptual belief, and a neurophysical explanation of how those mechanisms work such that they are sensitive. But these explanations blatantly assume the (actual) truth of our explanatorily basic perceptual beliefs. If the reliability challenge for D-realism requested an explanation of the reliability of our D-beliefs which failed to assume the (actual) truth of our explanatorily basic D-beliefs, then the apparent impossibility of answering it could not be thought to undermine those beliefs.

I think Clarke-Doane is right that there can't be a prohibition on assuming the truth of our beliefs. But I think there's an important difference between the perceptual and normative cases. For in the perceptual case, the analogy of (3) above is something like:

(3*) The modal security of our perceptual beliefs is derived from the assumption that our perceptual beliefs are true in combination with an evolutionary and neurophysical explanation of how our perceptual appartus came to and function so as to track the subjects of our perceptions at the actual world.

So, obviously, I think the heavy lifting is going to be done with something like (4), since (3*) avoids my objection by establishing modal security in a way that
seems relevant to how our perceptual beliefs track the truth at the actual world.

But that's all very tentative.

David, thanks a lot for this interesting post. (The link to my paper was broken, but I fixed it.)

You write,

“The fact that my true beliefs would be true in any world is not enough to satisfy my sense of what it is for my belief-forming mechanisms to track that truth when what explains why they are consistently true is not some link between my beliefs and truth but the fact that no matter how I got at the answer, it's true in all possible worlds.”

I was not trying to cash out our intuitions about reliability. As I note on 95 and 96, there are myriad senses of “explain the reliability”, because there are myriad senses of “explain” and myriad senses of “reliability”. I think that little turns on whether we can “explain the reliability” of our beliefs from an area, D, in some pretheoretical sense of this phrase. What is interesting is whether there is any sense of “explain the reliability” in which *both* of the following are true.

(a) It appears impossible to explain the reliability of our moral beliefs.
(b) The apparent impossibility of explaining the reliability of our moral beliefs undermines them.

You might think that in order to “explain the reliability” of our moral beliefs in a sense which satisfies (a) and (b) it is necessary to show that their contents (or truth) are implied by the best explanation of our having them. Only then could we establish “some link between [our] beliefs and truth”. But if Modal Security is true, then this sense of “explain the reliability” fails to satisfy (b). Learning that we cannot explain the reliability of our D-beliefs in this sense does not, I argue, give us any reason to believe that they are not both safe and sensitive.

I also argue that in order to explain the reliability of our moral beliefs in a sense which satisfies (a) and (b), it does not suffice to show that their contents (or truth) are implied by the best explanation of our having them. If it did, then we could *trivially* explain the reliability of our logical beliefs, because, for any logical belief that p, p is implied by the best explanation of our believing that p -- since p is implied by every explanation. However, even if we can relevantly explain the reliability of our logical beliefs, this is not a trivial fact.

What about the challenge to explain the “merely actual correlation” between our moral beliefs and the truths? I do not believe that this challenge is coherent. But even if it were, the apparent impossibility of answering it would not seem to give us any reason to believe that our moral beliefs are not both safe and sensitive (see Section 6 of my paper, “What is the Benacerraf Problem?”). Hence, if Modal Security is true, this sense of “explain the reliability” fails to satisfy (b).

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